Pakistan’s population could surge to 390 million by 2050, official report warns

By Sardar Burhan :

Pakistan’s population could rise to nearly 390 million within the next 25 years, increasing pressure on jobs, resources and public services, according to a major demographic report launched by the government on Tuesday.

The findings were presented during the launch of the Population Projections Report 2023-2050, prepared jointly by Pakistan’s planning ministry and the United Nations Population Fund. The report outlines several possible population growth scenarios and warns that the country faces mounting economic and social challenges if rapid population growth continues unchecked.

The study, based on the 2023 national census which recorded Pakistan’s population at 241.9 million, projects that under a “slow fertility decline scenario” the population could reach 390 million by 2050. That would represent an increase of around 148 million people, or 62%, over the next 27 years.

Officials said the projections reflected continuing high birth rates and demographic trends across provinces, combined with migration patterns that are expected to accelerate urban expansion and increase pressure on infrastructure.

The report estimated that Pakistan’s working-age population could rise sharply from 135.2 million to 255.4 million by 2050, an increase of nearly 89%. Analysts say the projected labour force alone would exceed the country’s current total population, posing a major challenge for policymakers already struggling with unemployment and slow economic growth.

At present, Pakistan’s economy has been expanding at an average rate of around 3.5% annually, well below the level economists say is necessary to absorb new entrants into the labour market. Experts have repeatedly argued that sustainable growth of between 6% and 8% is needed to generate enough employment opportunities for the country’s rapidly expanding youth population.

The report did not specify how many jobs would be required in coming decades but noted that the demographic transition could either become a major economic opportunity or a source of instability depending on government policy and investment.

It said a faster rise in the working-age population compared with dependent groups could create the conditions for a demographic dividend if Pakistan invests adequately in education, healthcare, skills development and employment generation.

Under an alternative “rapid fertility decline scenario”, where birth rates fall more sharply, Pakistan’s population is still projected to reach around 371.9 million by 2050, representing a 54% increase compared with 2023 levels.

A third projection based on expanded contraceptive use across provinces and Islamabad estimated the population would rise to 383.2 million by mid-century, underlining the scale of demographic momentum even if family planning measures improve.

The report also highlighted significant shifts in Pakistan’s age structure. While the number of children under 18 is expected to rise from 118 million to nearly 140 million by 2050, the proportion of younger people within the total population is projected to gradually decline as the country’s population ages.

Pakistan’s youth population aged between 15 and 29 years is expected to grow from 63 million to around 100 million during the same period, creating what officials described as a substantial expansion of the labour force. Meanwhile, the elderly population aged over 65 is projected to almost triple from 8.6 million to 22.6 million, increasing pressure on healthcare systems, pensions and social protection programmes.

Speaking at the launch ceremony, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal described uncontrolled population growth as one of the country’s biggest obstacles to sustainable development and economic progress.

He said reforms were needed in the National Finance Commission framework, noting that 82% of provincial resource distribution was currently tied to population size. According to the minister, provinces presently have little incentive to slow population growth, and those making progress in population management should receive additional rewards and support.

The provincial projections showed substantial increases across all regions of the country. Punjab is expected to remain Pakistan’s most populous province, growing from 128 million people in 2023 to around 200 million by 2050. Sindh is projected to expand from 56 million to more than 91 million residents, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could see its population rise from 41 million to 68 million.

Balochistan is expected to record the highest percentage increase among the provinces, with its population projected to rise by 68% from 14.7 million to 25 million.

The report also forecast rapid growth in Islamabad Capital Territory, where the population is expected to almost triple from 2.3 million to 6.5 million by 2050, reflecting continuing migration towards urban centres.

Officials said the projections underscored the urgent need for long-term planning in housing, transport, education, healthcare and employment to cope with Pakistan’s changing demographic landscape over the coming decades.

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