Thailand Surges Ahead as Chinese Tourists Shun Japan Amid Regional Tourism Shift
By Tanveer Ahmed :
Thailand has emerged as the clear winner in Asia’s early 2026 tourism race, welcoming nearly six million international visitors in the first eight weeks of the year while neighbouring Japan suffers a sharp downturn in Chinese arrivals linked to diplomatic tensions.
The contrasting fortunes of two of Asia’s most popular destinations highlight how geopolitical factors are reshaping travel patterns across the region, with significant implications for airlines, hotels, and local economies.
Thailand’s Strong Start
Between January 1 and February 22, Thailand recorded approximately six million foreign arrivals, generating substantial revenue for the country’s tourism-dependent economy. The Lunar New Year holiday period proved particularly fruitful, with Chinese travelers returning in force after last year’s downturn.
Daily arrivals from China reached around 30,000 on peak days during the February holiday period, reaffirming China’s position as Thailand’s largest inbound market. State-owned Airports of Thailand projected passenger numbers on China routes would increase by 8 percent compared to the previous year’s holiday period, with Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport alone expecting a 24 percent jump.
The recovery is especially significant given Thailand’s struggles in 2025, when foreign visitor numbers fell for the first time in four years due largely to a 30 percent drop in Chinese tourists following high-profile security incidents. Tourism authorities now project at least 35 million international arrivals in 2026, with Chinese travelers expected to account for roughly one-fifth of that total.
Japan’s January Decline
While Thailand celebrates its rebound, Japan’s tourism sector experienced a sobering start to the year. Official figures from the Japan National Tourism Organization show total foreign arrivals reached approximately 3.6 million in January 2026, marking a 4.9 percent decline compared to the same month last year.
The most dramatic drop came from mainland China, where visitor numbers plunged 60.7 percent to 385,300, accelerating from December’s 45.3 percent decline. Arrivals from Hong Kong also fell by 17.9 percent.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s controversial remarks in November regarding a potential Taiwan conflict triggered diplomatic friction, prompting China’s foreign ministry to urge citizens to reconsider travel to Japan. In late January, the ministry specifically warned against visiting Japan during Lunar New Year, citing safety concerns.
Other Markets Fill the Gap
Despite the Chinese downturn, Japan’s tourism sector found support elsewhere. South Korea delivered a record 1.18 million visitors in January, a 22 percent increase year-on-year, marking the first time arrivals from a single country exceeded 1.1 million in one month. Taiwan contributed 694,500 visitors, up 17 percent, while the United States sent 207,800 travelers, a 13.8 percent rise.
Japan Tourism Agency Commissioner Shigeki Murata acknowledged that while some cancellations by Chinese tourists occurred, visitors from other countries were offsetting the losses. He indicated the government was not currently considering new aid for businesses affected by the decline.
Calendar Factors at Play
The timing of Lunar New Year also influenced January’s comparisons. In 2026, the holiday fell in mid-February, whereas in 2025 it occurred in late January. This calendar shift delayed part of the seasonal travel surge, affecting year-on-year comparisons for destinations across East Asia.
For travelers, this timing nuance affects airfare pricing, hotel availability, and crowd levels at major attractions.
Marketing and Promotion
Thailand has actively courted Chinese visitors through promotional campaigns. The government launched the “China and Thailand are One Family” initiative in early February, partnering with international airports and major Chinese travel agencies to offer discounted packages on flights and hotels. Welcome ceremonies at Suvarnabhumi Airport featuring traditional performances greeted arriving passengers from Shanghai.
Domestically, the Tourism Authority of Thailand collaborated with AirAsia on the “FLY YOUR FEELINGS” campaign, offering discounts on routes to eight provinces featured in promotional commercials starring Thai global icon Lisa. The campaign aims to inspire both Thai and international tourists to discover lesser-known destinations.
Regional Competition Intensifies
Vietnam has emerged as a growing competitor, with Chinese visitors to the low-cost destination outpacing those to Thailand for the first time last year at 5.28 million versus 4.47 million. Bhummikitti Ruktaengam, vice president of the private-sector Tourism Council of Thailand, expressed concern that Thailand was losing market share to its eastern neighbour.
Other Southeast Asian nations are also benefiting from redirected Chinese travel. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam have all reported increased visitor numbers, with flights to these countries up significantly compared to previous years.
Looking Ahead
Thailand’s tourism authorities remain optimistic about sustaining momentum throughout 2026. Foreign visitor numbers are forecast to rise approximately 10 percent to 35.5 million, according to the Finance Ministry and other sources.
For Japan, the outlook depends partly on diplomatic developments. The country’s tourism model has diversified significantly in recent years, reducing overdependence on any single source market. However, the sharp decline in high-spending Chinese visitors affects luxury retail, theme parks, and premium hospitality segments in major cities.
Travel experts suggest the evolving landscape presents opportunities for strategic travellers. Reduced congestion at Japanese attractions, combined with expanding regional tourism offerings, may offer more relaxed and authentic experiences for visitors from other countries .
About Author
